A Black Swan is a rare, high impact event which, was not predicted. It has three properties: It is rare. Its impact is extreme. In retrospect, it was predictable. Examples of a Black Swan events which with hindsight we should have seen coming – or at least heard the alarm bells – are 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, or the Covid 19 pandemic. The enormous impact of Black Swan events such the Tsunami in Japan and the collapse of the stock markets in 2008 are still with us. Climate change and pollution may be the blackest of all Black Swans. But education is on the radar. 

Taleb maintains that failure to recognize and anticipate Black Swans is based on what he calls Ignorance Based Thinking. By that he means that most people are happy only thinking about things they know or referring only to sources they already agree with – confirmation bias. 

It takes a different kind of thinking to think about what we do not know, and that takes effort, courage, and skill to discover. We do not know what we do not know, and that can be deadly. We do not know what would not have occurred to us unless we take actions to make sure we try our best to make things occur to us. That is called Knowledge Based Thinking. 

My Terego Ideation Method™ is designed to help children – or anyone – to discover what might not otherwise occur to them. That way they can form Justified Beliefs; what scientist call Warranted Beliefs. 

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Excerpted from my book Hybrid Learning.

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